In November, the US public will vote for a new congress, and the current predictions are not the most helpful or accurate. It is no surprise to hear that these mid-term elections are very important for both the Democrats and the Republicans. Everyone has seen via the Obama presidency how much it can affect legislation if the opposite party to the President controls both houses. There are a vast array of predictions from various pollsters and commentators; but in recent years with the Trump victory and the rise of populism throughout Europe, it is clear that these predictions are useless. President Trump’s Republican party will be an opponent of which the Democrats have never seen before, because the leader is not a normal politician. The US is undoubtedly deeply divided, but this demonstrates why predictions are simply not helpful.
The US congress has two chambers; the House which has 435 members, and the Senate which has 100 members. Polling companies have a consensus that 80-100 of the seats in the House are “swing” seats and there are 30-40 which are “toss-up” seats. Almost every prediction has the Democrats set to win the popular vote, and they expect the Republicans to lose their majority in the House. The unfortunate statistic for President Trump is that in every midterm election since the American Civil War, the governing party, on average, has lost 32 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate. However, we should ignore this statistic as President Trump is a leader like no other, and Republican voters are still backing him. In a recent major poll, 89% of Republicans say they still fully support the President, the highest figure ever for Trump since he entered office.
When examining the two parties, it is obvious to see which is more united. The Republicans are completely behind their President, who is achieving incredible economic success. Trump is breaking records relating to unemployment, GDP, and wage growth. There would be no reason as to why a significant number of Republican voters would switch allegiances. However, the same cannot be said for Democrats, as they are currently fundamentally divided on ideology. The prime example of this is when Hilary and Bernie were battling it out to be the official nominee for the Democrats. Hilary was the traditional choice for Democrats because she was experienced and offered a centrist approach. On the other hand, Bernie was offering a radical alternative called socialism, which appealed to the far-left within the party.
Many of President Trump’s fans are worried that the Mid-terms for Trump will be the same disastrous results as Obama had during his time in office. However, Obama was part of the establishment and liberal elite, and his mid-term results were far more predictable. President Trump on the other hand is not predictable; the reason he won the race to the White House is because he managed to attract people who had not voted during their lives; the “forgotten” people. These members of the public are a nightmare for pollsters and experts as they have absolutely no idea whether these people, and in what numbers, will go out to vote. Therefore, this gives even more assurances for Trump fans and further concern for Democrats. Republicans also have a stronger voting turnout in mid-term elections than Democrats.
Regardless of the results for these mid-term elections, it will not dramatically affect the style of the President. Trump has used a large number of executive orders to get his legislation through, regardless of whether he thinks it would get approval in Congress. If the Democrats took control of the House, it would obviously hinder and delay the President’s policies, but it would not have nearly as much impact as when the Republicans took control of Congress in 2010. Republicans should not be as worried as first thought, because this President will still carry on his successful economic policies regardless of who takes control of the house, and he will always be committed to MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!